"A Turning Point"

Background: Trump Launches Trade War with Canada, Mexico, EU.

This thread by Jasmin Mujanović is a pretty terrific short explanation of why I'm feeling so grim about Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's totally understandable comments regarding the state of U.S.-Canada relations after Donald Trump launched a trade war with Canada today:

And then there is this: A fundamental break in relations between the United States and Canada serves the Kremlin's interests and agenda, in a number of ways.

For one, it leaves Canada incredibly vulnerable, if its more populated and militarily stronger neighbor to the south is no longer an ally.

Under Putin's leadership, just in the past few years, Russia has annexed Crimea, made multilple military incursions into Ukraine, and forced Sweden onto a war footing, where it remains two years later.

There is no question that Putin, who declared the collapse of the Soviet Union "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century," has dreams of expanding the Russian empire once again. The Nordic countries are in grave danger in a full-scale collapse of U.S.-Canada relations that exposes Canada, with the longest coastline among all of the countries of the world, to Russian control.

I'm aware that sounds like something that could never happen, especially in a world where we've told ourselves that "traditional warfare" is over.

It could happen.

Putin has a goal of destabilization for a reason. And anyone who imagines that he wouldn't conspire to use military force to mount a classic invasion in today's world hasn't been paying attention. Not for the last few years, and not back to the very start of his rule: Although the Russo-Georgian War didn't officially start until August of 2008, Putin laid the groundwork from nearly the moment he took office.
Vladimir Putin became president of the Russian Federation in 2000, which had a profound impact on Russo-Georgian relations. The conflict between Russia and Georgia began to escalate in December 2000, when Georgia became the first and only member of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) on which the Russian visa regime was imposed.
I am not saying this is what will happen; I'm saying this is what could happen. Because what Trump did today was truly seismic. No matter how much the political press may want to pretend it's just business as usual.

It is not.

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