Based on what I've been reading I predict Hillary Clinton's going to lose.I was up until 4am last night, by which point I'd been watching television coverage of Super Tuesday for 10 straight hours. Mainly, what I learned is that Hillary lost.
She'll probably wind up pocketing the most delegates but she's going to lose.
The Media will see to it.
It's unlikely she'll get out and out beaten across the board, but she'll still lose. She'll lose by not beating Obama across the board or she'll lose by not winning in every big state or she'll lose by not winning by a large enough margin in the states she's supposed to win or by not coming close enough in the states she's expected to lose or she'll lose by not getting the votes of the right demographic or she'll lose by not getting enough votes in the demographics that were going to vote for her anyway or she'll lose because not enough people tell the exit pollsters on their way out how excited they were to cast their vote for her.
She's going to lose.
She's going to lose because they're going to say she did and they'll say it because they want her to.
I also learned that when Obama wins, he "beats Hillary in Missouri," but when Hillary wins, she "ekes out a victory in Tennessee." I learned that Hillary Clinton is divisive and polarizing and divisive and unlikable and divisive—hey, did I mention that Hillary is divisive? I learned that she needs to do something about being so divisive. I learned that whatever percentage of women didn't vote for her reflects badly on her, because it's too many; also, whatever percentage of black voters did vote for her reflects badly on her, because it's too few. More women should be voting for her, but, gawd, it's so divisive when she plays the gender card!
Mannion's point—and subsequently mine—is not about Hillary v. Obama. It's not even Hillary v. The Media. It's about The One Who Isn't the Favorite v. The Media. Right now, Obama's the favorite, in his match-up with Hillary. But guess what…?
This is not sour grapes. This is the way it's been going on for fifteen years now. And those of you who think that this is a good reason not to support her, so we can get away from this, those of you who think that Obama will somehow be able, through the sheer force of his personality or the beauty of his rhetoric or the wonderfulness that is him or through the plain fact that he is not a Clinton need to consider this very real possibility:You can take that to the bank.
The reason he's a media darling now is because he's not a Clinton. He gives them a way to dump on the Clintons while congratulating themselves on how cool and post-partisan they are.
If and when Hillary's beaten and Obama's the nominee he becomes the Democrat running for President.
And you watch.
If the Republican running against him is John McCain then every single move Obama makes will be the wrong one.
Everything he says will be a lie.
Every time he appears to win he will lose.
Because Mannion's a psychic.
In case it isn't perfectly clear, this post isn't meant to be an exhortation to support Hillary. Or, for that matter, to not support Obama. It's just a memo about what we'll be facing either way.