In the new McClatchy-Marist poll, which is generally reliable, Hillary Clinton is up by 15 points.
Clinton not only went up, but Trump also went down. Clinton now has a 48-33 percent lead, a huge turnaround from her narrow 42-39 advantage last month.

The findings are particularly significant because the poll was taken after both political conventions ended and as Trump engaged in a war of words with the parents of Army Capt. Humayun Khan, who was killed in an explosion in Iraq 12 years ago while trying to rescue other soldiers.

...Other polls have shown Clinton in the lead, though Marist's is the largest so far.
And what's even more remarkable is that Clinton, who has been plagued by media narratives about "low enthusiasm" and "unlikeability," has a far greater number of people who are voting for her, rather than just against Trump, than Trump has voting for him:
More encouraging for Clinton, 57 percent of her backers say their vote is for her, while 40 percent say it's largely an anti-Trump vote.

...Most of Trump's backers – 57 percent – say their vote is against Clinton, while only 36 percent called it a pro-Trump decision.
That's important, because people who are voting for a candidate are typically more motivated to show up on Election Day to cast their affirmative vote than people are who just casting a protest vote.

On the one hand, I'm super excited by this! On the other hand, I'm quivering in fear, because I just don't think it will be this easy. No one strolls into the White House—least of all Hillary Clinton, who has been met with significant obstacles all along her journey.

On my nonexistent third hand, though, I don't see how the Republicans can win if they oust Trump, because his decidedly fervent supporters, a smaller percentage of his base though they may be, will surely revolt against whoever the GOP installs in his place. And I don't see Trump quitting, even if he is clearly beginning to sense his imminent humiliation, because quitting would be a humiliation all its own.

So I don't know. I'm very cautiously optimistic.

The only thing I can say with certainty is the next three months are going to be extremely tumultuous. This thing is far from over.

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