I've been pretty pessimistic lately, so this polling data comes as a really nice surprise:
Asked which party they trusted to "do a better job of coping with the main problems the nation faces over the next few years," voters across the country opted for Democrats by wide margins. In the Northeast, Democrats outpaced Republicans by 29 points while the margin was 26 points in the Midwest. The news wasn't much better for Republicans in the West (Democrats +18) or the South (Democrats +15).
The Dems have a double-digit lead in every region of the country. That's just astonishing.

There's also some interesting data regarding a potential Obama v. McCain matchup:
Obama and McCain are statistically tied among men (Obama 48 percent, McCain 47 percent), but the Illinois senator has a 14-point edge among women. That margin is due in large part to Obama's strength among black women, who favor him over McCain by a whopping 90 points. (That is not a typo.) McCain actually leads among white women, 50 percent to 43 percent, a reflection, perhaps of some lingering ill will among supporters of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.).

Similarly, Obama expectedly does better among lower income voters while the two candidates run even among the more affluent. Obama holds a wide 16-point lead among those with a household income of $50,000 or less while McCain is ahead of Obama, 49 percent to 48 percent, among those making $50,000 or more.

But, there is also data in the guts of the poll that suggests another Democratic year is brewing, with Obama positioned to take full advantage.

A look at the presidential vote by region suggests a shift in political inclination is at work. Not surprisingly, Obama holds his largest lead over McCain (18 points) in the Northeast -- an area that has become increasingly dominated by Democrats in recent elections.

But, Obama also holds a lead in the traditional battleground area of the Midwest -- where Obama takes 54 percent to McCain's 41 percent -- and in the Republican-leaning territory of the West where Obama holds a double-digit lead at the moment. And, even in the South, where Republicans have dominated at the federal level for much of the past four decades, Obama is competitive; McCain takes 49 percent to 45 percent for the Illinois senator.
It would be rash to make predictions this early in the game, but if these numbers hold at anything like their current levels, the Republicans could be facing a wipeout of historic proportions. Don't know about you, but that makes me feel all warm inside.

H/t Scott Tribe.

Shakesville is run as a safe space. First-time commenters: Please read Shakesville's Commenting Policy and Feminism 101 Section before commenting. We also do lots of in-thread moderation, so we ask that everyone read the entirety of any thread before commenting, to ensure compliance with any in-thread moderation. Thank you.

blog comments powered by Disqus