We've now pared the fields down enough to put the power rankings into one post. This is good, because I've run out of ways to say, "Jebus, but 9iu11ani has no chance." We'll start on the left side of the aisle.
Barack Obama really couldn't have asked for a better sequence of events. First, Bill Clinton acts like a complete jerk in South Carolina, managing to push every negative button on the anti-Hillary console in the process. Next, he absolutely crushes Clinton in South Carolina, doubling her up, thanks in part to the aforementioned former president. Then Caroline, Patrick, and Ted Kennedy all endorse him, with Teddy taking some serious shots at Hillary in the process. Then Clinton's plan to make Florida count backfires, making her look like the Machiavellian schemer Clintonphobes fear she is. Finally, today, John Edwards drops out, right at a point where Edwards supporters will be least likely to support Clinton and most likely to support Obama. It's gonna be really close down the stretch, but give the edge to Obama.
2. Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y. (LR: 1)
If you reread why Obama's up, you know why Clinton's down, and most of it is all about Clinton. But not, unfortunately, Hillary Clinton, the candidate who's actually running for president. No, Bill has injected himself into the race in a big, big way, seriously damaging himself and his wife in the process. Now, Bill Clinton was a perfectly cromulent president, but his wife has been a Senator for seven years and appears to be competent and bright, and not for nothing, but she's the candidate, not you, Bill. Hillary needs to get her husband to shut up for the duration of the campaign, and the Clinton campaign as a whole needs to recognize that Democrats do not particularly want to see a scorched-earth campaign in the primaries. As for Hillary, she's going to need to reassert herself as the actual candidate, because I've seen more of Bill on my teevee lately than Hill, and Bill isn't running.
3. Former Sen. Mike Gravel, D-Alaska (LR: 5)
On the one hand, I sort of respect Gravel's Quixotic campaign for the presidency; I've always been a sucker for lost causes, ever since I was in the pit orchestra for a high school production of Man of La Mancha that got canceled by the teachers because getting it produced was going to be too hard. Deep irony, that. At any rate, while I like the Quixotic attempt, I'm also reminded of a quote from Robert Heinlein: "Tilting at windmills hurts you more than the windmills."
Dropping out: John Edwards (3), Dennis Kucinich (4)
Republicans
1. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz. (LR: 2)
With a win in Florida, McCain gets the front-runner tag, and he's got a very good chance to win it all. That's the good news. The bad news is that he's out of money, and if he doesn't get a knockout blow on Super Duper Tuesday, he's going to have to deal with Mitt Romney, who has enough money to fight a war of attrition to St. Paul and beyond. The worse news is that, while he still has his sycophantic supporters in the media, a few members of the press are starting to wake up to the fact that McCain won in Florida by, well, lying. Hard to do straight talking when you're lying. I think McCain has dented his halo a bit, and I wouldn't be surprised if it gets further tarnished during the campaign. Add to the fact that McCain is perhaps the worst public speaker in the race, and you've got a candidate who looks much better on paper than in reality right now.
2. Former Gov. Mitt Romney, R-Mass. (LR: 1)
It was a nice run for Mitt, but he really needed to win in Florida and he didn't. His best chance now will be to muddy the waters during Super Tuesday; if he can win, say, 1/3 of the states and 1/3 of the delegates, he'll have a decent shot at fighting delegate-by-delegate to the convention, especially if Mike Huckabee drops out. But that's a big if, and while McCain is still vulnerable, it may be that the GOP simply decides to give Old Man Surge the reins to the party, in which case it will be hard for Mitt to win. Somewhere, Hugh Hewitt cries quietly.
3. Former Gov. Mike Huckabee, R-Ark. (LR: 3)
Huckabee's best chance came and went with South Carolina. Had he won there, it would likely be a Romney-Huckabee race right now. As it is, Huckabee is mired as the clear third-place candidate right now. The question now is how long he can stay in the race. He's going to mess things up for Romney on Super Tuesday, but if he gets knocked out after that then Romney might have a chance to stage a comeback. If he wins enough on Super Tuesday to stay in the race, then McCain probably wins the nomination -- although it's barely possible to see a situation in which the three top-tier candidates muddle into a brokered convention.
4. A Brokered Convention (LR:4)
Still less likely than a McCain win, but the scenario goes like this: McCain wins about half the delegates on Super Tuesday, but Huckabee and Romney both split the rest roughly equally. This keeps both in the race, and while McCain is the leader, he still struggles to match Romney's spending. The two split most of the remaining contests, while Huckabee picks up another two or three states, enough to keep everyone below 50 percent. Likely? Not really. But possible.
5. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Tex. (LR: 5)
Finally starting to fade from the peak of Paulmentum, Ron and the Paulbots will need to decide soon whether to keep campaigning for the GOP nomination or to switch over for a third-party run. Certainly, Paul is not going to win the nomination at this point, but he may as well stay in for a bit longer, if only to annoy Britt Hume. I'm always in favor of annoying Britt Hume.
6. Ambassador Alan Keyes (LR: 8)
Moves up in the rankings because everyone above him had enough smarts to quit the race. And...frankly, I'm running out of snarky things to say about that. I mean, yeah, we've talked about the neck beard, and the tying-every-social-ill-to-abortion, and the fact that I believe he's picked up a grand total of 11 votes nationwide, but...I mean, doesn't it feel like we've done this before? Oh yeah, we have, in '96 and '00.
Dropping Out: Fred Thompson (7), Rudy Giuliani (8)